Public health grand rounds November 29 11 AM

Public Health Grand Rounds
Department of Preventive Medicine
Loyola University Chicago Health Sciences Campus
Maguire Bldg 3rd floor conference room
Thursday November 29, 11 AM

 ATESMACHEW (ATES) B. HAILEGIORGIS will present: A Agent based modeling for humanitarian issues: disease and refugee  camps



Dr. Hailegiorgis is from George Mason University in Fairfax Virginia in the Department of Computational Social Science.  See abstract below which outlines a fascinating discussion of how statistical models and geographic information systems may be used to explore the potential spread of cholera in refugee camps. 



The displacement of people in times of crises represents a challenge for

humanitarian agencies. This challenge is especially acute within developing

countries, which hosts the majority of displaced people. In this

presentation, I will demonstrate a spatially explicit agent-based model that

explores the spread of cholera in the Dadaab refugee camps. Poor sanitation

and housing conditions contribute to frequent incidents of cholera

outbreaks. The spread of cholera is modeled by explicitly representing the

interaction between humans (host) and their environment. The dynamics of the

epidemic is represented using Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR)

model. Elevation surface data combined with rainfall is utilized to carry

pollutants (disposal and feces). Agents in the model are modeled as mobile

and purpose oriented individuals engaging in daily activities. All agents

are susceptible to diseases. Infected agents spread cholera bacteria through

excretion of feces to the environment and this can then be spread throughout

the system. Results from the model show that the spread of cholera grows

radically from contaminated water sources. Agents' social behavior and

movements contribute to the spread of cholera to other camps where water

sources were relatively safe. Pronounced cyclic events of cholera outbreaks

are also observed due to the rainfall. This modeling effort highlights the

potential of agent-based modeling to explore the spread of cholera in a

humanitarian context.